How accurate are NFL pre-draft ratings?

Let’s look at 2018

A friend emailed me, “I don’t know if it’s even possible to figure this out, but… I am very curious how many players over or under perform or match their pre-draft grades.”

I’m curious as well. The question is how far do I want to go with it. I chose the top 50 prospects from Arif Hasan’s Consensus Board of 2018, drawing from “48 big boards this year from talented evaluators and draft analysts across the spectrum, including third-party scouting organizations like Optimum Scouting, big media groups like ESPN and NFL Network and independent blogs like NFL Rough Draft.”

Why just 50 players?

Every year, approximately 50 players have the talent to be first-round draft picks, or so I’ve been told, although only 32 can be. Team needs and differing estimations of talent will determine who they are. It is from this group that one hopes to find perennial Pro Bowlers. The further down the draft, teams mainly hope to just plug holes in their lineups and are not necessarily expecting great play from lower picks.

Why the 2018 draft class?

Three years is enough time to determine if a drafted player can play well. He’s three years into the four-year rookie contract. If the fourth year is a “make-or-break” season, then the player hasn’t lived up to expectations.

Keep in mind that the Consensus Big Board was pre-draft. It wasn’t a prediction of which team would draft which…