Quarterback most likely to succeed?

On the five first-round qbs of the 2021 NFL Draft

On Colin Cowherd’s May 1 podcast. Chad Millman expressed dismay that Justin Fields was chosen after fellow quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Trey Lance in the NFL Draft. Millman wondered if there’s a “lack of science in scouting.”

Wilson, from BYU, started three years but 2020 was his only great year, and that was against an easy schedule. Lance, from North Dakota State, dominated in his one season quarterbacking the FCS powerhouse. Ohio State’s Fields, like #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence of Clemson, played well in multiple seasons against top competition. He seems more “NFL-ready.”

Millman also expressed doubts about Alabama’s Mac Jones, the fifth quarterback drafted in the first round (15th overall), who played just one season with most talented teammates in college football.

I intuitively agreed with Millman, and wanted to look at the data.

I looked up the quarterbacks taken in the top half of the draft since 2011 to spot possible trends. (2011 was the first season of the salary caps on rookie contracts, which changed the quarterback marketplace; before then teams were often afraid of overpaying for a high-pick quarterback).

I wondered, how likely are any of them to become a bust?

Before that, we should ask, what is a quarterback bust? I would say a bust has three characteristics: