Safely predicting the NFL MVP

Follow the trend

On the morning of August 19, 2024, the national ESPN radio shows had fill-in hosts. I did not catch all their names and don’t know to whom I should credit this thought, but someone said a quarterback on a top-2 seed will be the NFL MVP.

What he said made sense, but I was curious to see how accurate he was.

I went back 30 seasons. There were 32 MVPs in that time because in two seasons there were ties. In this listing, “NFC-1” means the team earned the #1 seed in the NFC; in parentheses is the team’s won-loss record that year.

Here are the MVPs:

1994: Steve Young, QB, 49ers; NFC-1 (13–3)

1995: Brett Favre, QB, Packers; NFC-3 (11–5)

1996: Brett Favre, QB, Packers; NFC-1 (13–3)

1997 (tie): Brett Favre, QB, Packers; NFC-2 (13–3)

1997 (tie): Barry Sanders, RB, Lions; NFC-5 (9–7)

1998:Terrell Davis, RB, Broncos; AFC-1 (14–2)

1999: Kurt Warner, QB, Rams; NFC-1 (13–3)

2000: Marshall Faulk, RB, Rams; NFC-6 (10–6)

2001: Kurt Warner, QB, Rams; NFC-1 (14–2)

2002: Rich Gannon, QB, Raiders; AFC-1 (11–5)